Spam Folder

Just noticed all the comments from previous posts have been going to my spam folder.  Sorry for the late responses.  Looking to fix it.

Should I sell $YHOO because of it!

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Market Volatility

The Volatility Index ($VIX) rose a bit over the last few trading sessions as the Japanese Markets have gone wild.  The Nikkei had advanced over 45% year to date, but dropped 7% during Thursday's trading session.  With the drop, the US Markets also corrected slightly Thursday pre-market, but most of the losses were quickly bought. It's a strong sign of market strength.  Check out the $VIX over the previous few days and weeks.

Goldman Sachs Update

I have added Goldman Sachs ($GS) to my portfolio.  Buying the best Investment Bank in the world on red.  Love it.  In a strong market environment, this company is going to destroy the competition!

Watching the World

As an Investor I always watch the global markets.  One in particular that has been really running of late has been the Nikkei 225.  The Index is up 36% YTD after today's close.  I repeat 36%!  Overnight the Index nearly touched 16,000 Intra-day.  Unfortunately, it closed at 14,483.00.  This marked a 10% intra-day DROP.  This is gigantic.  If this happened in the US, the Dow would have to drop 1500 points in 1 day.

The Nikkei has been on fire, and this welcome correction should be cheered.  Things were getting too easy, and now things will look to consolidate over the next few weeks and months.  I'd be wary of jumping into anything Japan related before the weekend.  As a trader, these corrections usually take 2 days to flush out the weak hands.

Watch the $EWJ.

Intra-Day Update

I do not like this doji (gravestone) for the bulls:

Bought some $TZA for protection.  Still bullish for the year.

Bull or Bear...

Year to Date my investment model at covestor.com, is up 59.1%.  After looking at my positions and weights, I have found something interesting.  I have executed very little purchases in the last 5 months.  Many of my positions were bought in January or 2012.  I've recently sold of small pieces of a few positions in order to protect my gains.  If a market correction does happen, I will be ready.

Do I see a correction?  At the moment, I do not see anything that would warrant a correction.  The market is being led by Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, and Financials.  All sectors that can and are leading this bull market.  The lagging sectors are commodity related.  They are Materials, Utilities, Energy, Industrial's, and Technology.

Overall, many stocks are in breakout mode, and no one knows when that will stop.  Enjoy the gains, but be aware.  I am currently net long 86%, and looking to continue to tack on gains.

Home Depot Earnings

Home Depot reported higher than expected quarterly results and raised its sales and profit outlook for the year as the world's largest home improvement chain benefited from a recovery in the U.S. housing market. EPS came in at $0.83 compared to an estimate of $0.77. Revenues were also higher at $19.12 Billion versus an estimate of $18.68 Billion.
Home Depot has been on a tear since the housing crash, and now subsequent recovery. The company has the largest buyback program by percentage and should continue to outperform. The chart looks phenomenal.

Yahoo and Tumblr

$YHOO buys Tumblr for $1.1 Billion and all the M&A experts are on the floor laughing at the sales to revenue #s for Tumblr.  Yahoo did this for their mobile strategy, which is presently approaching #1 in the world.  At the last earnings call Yahoo had 300 million mobile users.  They just added 100 million mobile users, and many under the age of 24.  Both companies with be run separately, with Yahoo providing lots of support.  I like this deal today.  It'll be interesting to watch over the next year and more.

For comparison sake, $GOOG bought Youtube at $1.65 Billion with no revenues.  Today, Youtube alone could be worth $50 billion.

$UNXL short update

I am short $UNXL.  Stock is getting hammered today, and have not seen any news.  Would love it to break the 50 day moving average.

JC Penney

$JCP reported earnings after the close last night showing a loss of $1.31 a share vs estimates of a loss of $0.89 cents.  Revenues also missed targets as same store sales fell 16.6% during the quarter.  The retailer is throwing the blame at Ron Johnson and his strategies.

This company is in shambles.  I'm not sure what they have going for them.  They are spending tons of cash, not making any money.  They have an identity crisis, and are now losing most of their customers.  So what does this all mean?  I guess it's a buy...Sometimes these things can work out.  In my case, I'm not touching it.  If a turn-around does happen, it'll take years, not months.

Tesla Motors

This move in Tesla Motors ($TSLA) is epic!  I have been following the company for a few years and have been waiting for the last month for a long time.  It's great to finally see your thesis come true.  I've been a big believer in Elon Musk, Electric cars, and the changing US auto industry.  The gas car has been around for a century with very limited improvements.  Gas prices continue to rise, and our dependence on dirty fuels around the globe continues.  Enter Tesla Motors. It's real and its coming.  GM, Honda, Ford, Toyota, and everyone else better be paying attention because battery pack cars have many advantages.  Let the Electric Revolution begin!

Budget Deficit

I read an article this morning that caught my attention.  US Budget Deficit Shrinks Far Faster than Expected. The article mentioned that over the last 4 years the budget deficit topped $1 trillion each year.  A large figure by any measure.  This fiscal year, which ends in September, is on pace for a deficit of $642 million!  The Non-Partisan Congressional Budget Office added that by 2015 the deficit could get to 2.1% of the GDP, a level sustainable for long term growth.  Positive signs continue to come from all angles.  The bad news...$GLD continues to suffer (I'm short)

Call it a Year?

For those investors that follow my trades on www.covestor.com its been a GREAT 4 months.  Highlighted by the last two weeks with a large position in Tesla Motors ($TSLA).  Does it ever stop?  I've sold small pieces of my position to protect myself, but it just continues to go higher.  YTD I have gained 44.7% versus the S&P 500 at 14.6%.  I'm currently net long about 92%.  I remain bullish, but cautiously aware of a potential sell-off.  I still like a few positions that could have great second half's and they are highlighted by Yahoo ($YHOO) and Facebook ($FB).  Both are larger companies that deserve a bigger market cap.

I'll probably just buy some $BEAM and hit the beach!

Broad Market

The amount of stocks hitting new 52 week highs is extraordinary.  I looked over many charts this weekend, and was amazed at the amount trading at all-time highs.  From $NKE to $KRFT, to $GOOG.  Its amazing to see.  The one area that continues to get hurt is the commodity trade.  $GLD, $XLE, are underperforming during this rally.  The consumer brands are working and should continue to work.  I'm staying long but looking to lighten after a superior 4 months.

Just to Review...

On January 11, 2013 I wrote an article for www.covestor.com highlighting my top stocks for 2013.  You can re-read that article HERE or see below:

Compared to S&P 500 at 15%

Facebook ($FB)- Gain of 1%.  Groundball out
Yahoo ($YHOO)- Gain of 33%.  Home Run
Tesla Motors ($TSLA)- Gain of 126% GRAND SLAM
Sodastream ($SODA)- Gain of 27% Triple
Zillow ($Z)- Gain of 100% GRAND SLAM

But who's counting...